SOVEREIGN ?
• SOVEREIGN ARMED · real $Open positions
| Symbol | Qty | Avg entryTied up | Mark | Value | TargetStop · room | Unrealized $ (%) | Act |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STOCKS & ETFS · brokerage | |||||||
| › STNG | 180 | $79.42$14,295.60 | $84.10 | $15,138.00 | $92.00$76.50 · 9.0% | +$842.40+5.9% | Sell |
| Software stop at $76.50 — watched by Sovereign itself, so it protects while Sovereign is running. Risk to the stop is $1,368.00. Exiting now costs about $0.00 in commission; the round trip is not what makes this position green. | |||||||
| › XLV | 48 | $171.43$8,228.64 | $176.20 | $8,457.60 | $184.00$166.50 · 5.5% | +$228.96+2.8% | Sell |
| Sized by risk to the stop, not by round lots: 48 shares put $465.60 behind this ticker, 0.5% of the book. The stop was trailed 161.00 → 166.50 after the first leg up. | |||||||
| › CRK | 510 | $15.55$7,930.50 | $15.34 | $7,823.40 | $17.20$14.20 · 7.4% | −$107.10−1.4% | Sell |
| Red is shown as red. A cockpit that rounds toward good news teaches its operator to stop reading it. Risk to the stop is $581.40; the plan's target is $17.20, 12.1% above the mark. | |||||||
| INCOME · income account | |||||||
| › CLM | 1,420 | $7.11$10,096.20 | $7.23 | $10,266.60 | —no stop · income hold | +$170.40+1.7% | Sell |
| An income holding, unstopped by the owner's order: the distribution reinvests monthly at the lower of NAV and the five-day average price, which is the point of holding it. "No stop" is stated on the row, not hidden — an unprotected position must be visibly unprotected. | |||||||
| › CRF | 380 | $6.80$2,584.00 | $6.88 | $2,614.40 | —no stop · income hold | +$30.40+1.2% | Sell |
| The second income holding. Its distributions are measured from the venue's own transaction record, never derived from a rate — the Distributions card below says what actually arrived. | |||||||
| CRYPTO · spot | |||||||
| › BTC | 0.085 | $78,980.35$6,713.33 | $81,240.00 | $6,905.40 | $86,000.00$76,000.00 · 6.5% | +$192.07+2.9% | Sell |
| Spot, no leverage. The stop is software here too: the venue holds no order, Sovereign fires the sell. Risk to the stop is $445.40. Exiting now costs about $41.43 in taker fee. | |||||||
| FUTURES · exchange-traded | |||||||
| › CRUDE-21NOV26 controls $56,064.00 |
60 | $91.72incl. fee · $6,595.50 margin | $93.44 | $6,595.50margin | $97.50$89.80 · 3.9% | +$1,032.00+15.6% | Sell |
| Sixty nano crude contracts controlling $56,064.00 of oil on $6,595.50 of margin. The stop rests at the exchange — here and on the event-perps sleeve, the two venues where it does — and was trailed 86.30 → 89.80, which cut the risk to the stop from $4,284 to $2,184 without touching the position. Entry includes the fee, because an entry that excludes its own cost is a number that flatters itself. | |||||||
| PREDICTION BETS · event exchange | |||||||
| › APPROVAL-26OCT24-E40 YES · approval above 40% |
1,800Sovi 74% | 62¢$1,116.00 · edge +9 pts | 71¢ | $1,278.00max $1,800.00 | —settles Oct 24 | +$162.00+14.5% | Sell |
| A defined-risk event contract: the most it can lose is what it cost, $1,116.00, and the most it can make is $684.00 more. Under the quantity is Sovereign's own chance for the side held, as recorded on the fill, not a live figure; the edge after fees is the calibrated edge from the same moment — that chance shrunk toward the market by the trust its settled record has earned, which is why it is smaller than the raw gap. | |||||||
| › CPIYOY-26OCT-T3.2 NO · CPI year over year above 3.2% |
900Sovi 68% | 44¢$396.00 · edge +6 pts | 52¢ | $468.00max $900.00 | —settles Nov 12 | +$72.00+18.2% | Sell |
| Bought as a resting maker bid, so no taker fee was paid to get in. A win is counted when the market settles, not when the price moves, and its dot lands on the graph at the read that first saw the payout. | |||||||
Open value $59,546.90 across every venue · flattening every position would cost about $148.20 in fees. Exposure controlled $109,015.40 — 1.09× NAV.
Money in, by venue ?
Every switch that can put real money at risk sits under a hinged cover. Tap the cover to lift it, then tap the switch behind it. Two deliberate actions, never one — the cover exists so that no single mis-tap can arm real capital. The lid falls shut again after every throw, and a lifted cover you do not throw re-locks on its own. On the real cockpit each arm also asks for the PIN again. The switches here match the book on Home: the venues it holds positions on are armed; the perps sleeve is still covered.
Try it: lift the event-perps cover and throw it, then throw it back. Or lift HALT.
Posture
The backstop needs a successful account read to fire. If the account becomes unreadable, the cockpit says so in words rather than showing a stale number that looks healthy — an inert safety net that appears armed is worse than a missing one. HALT blocks every new entry and closes nothing: exits, stops and forced closes keep working.
Every closed trade, and every trade the system declined, is written down with its reason and its horizon, so a decision to sit out can be graded later against what actually happened. A system that only logs its trades cannot be told apart from a system that got lucky.
Closed trades
| Trade | Closed | Net after fees | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| APPROVAL-26OCT17-E38.7 Events | Oct 17 · 10:31 AM ET | +$1,862.87 | win |
| ETH Crypto spot | Oct 16 · 10:20 AM ET | -$452.20 | loss |
| STNG Stocks | Oct 15 · 4:40 PM ET | +$310.00 | win |
| FEDDECISION-26OCT-C25 Events | Oct 15 · 1:00 PM ET | +$645.40 | win |
| GRAB Stocks | Oct 14 · 11:30 AM ET | -$127.30 | loss |
| CRUDE-21OCT26 Futures | Oct 13 · 4:55 PM ET | +$868.00 | win |
| XLV Stocks | Oct 13 · 12:45 PM ET | +$522.10 | win |
| SOL Crypto spot | Oct 12 · 10:15 AM ET | -$340.75 | loss |
| CPIYOY-26OCT-T2.9 Events | Oct 9 · 2:30 PM ET | +$96.20 | win |
| CRUDE-21OCT26 Futures | Oct 9 · 4:20 PM ET | +$1,140.00 | win |
| CRK Stocks | Oct 9 · 11:05 AM ET | -$198.40 | loss |
| XLE Stocks | Oct 8 · 3:10 PM ET | +$286.00 | win |
| STNG Stocks | Oct 8 · 10:40 AM ET | +$412.50 | win |
What it refused
| Candidate | Move | Refused by | Resolves | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| › DOT Crypto · fade |
+14.0% | No catalyst | 1 / 3 / 5 days | Pending |
| A 14% move with no identifiable event behind it fails the catalyst rule. The refusal is filed to be scored at one, three and five trading days against the price on the day it was declined, net of the venue's toll — including the case where declining was wrong. | ||||
| › ETH Crypto · long |
+0.4% | Dead mid | 1 / 3 / 5 days | Pending |
| Spread too wide relative to the expected move — the position would start meaningfully behind. Declining to pay the spread is a decision, and it is logged like one. | ||||
| › GASPRICE-26OCT-T3.20 Events · YES |
edge +0.4 pt | Edge too thin after costs | Oct 31 | Pending |
| Sovereign's own chance was 61% against a 58¢ ask. After fees, and the haircut its settled record has earned so far, less than a point of edge remained — not enough to pay for being wrong. The bar for a bet does not move with a mood. | ||||
| › ZEC Crypto · momentum |
+22.0% | No catalyst | 1 / 3 / 5 days | Wrong − |
| Graded and scored against itself: the move continued after the refusal, so this decline is recorded as a miss. Kept visible on purpose. A refusal ledger that quietly drops its bad calls is just a highlight reel. | ||||